15 Early Season Adjustments, a New 2026 QB1 Candidate and Year 2 Breakouts

This week matters more than most. Your 1-2 team has some decisions to make, your 2-1 team needs a boost and this might be your last shot to save that 0-3 team that had another week of bad luck. In this week's edition of the Rookie Big Board:

• 15 early season adjustments that change the way we should view every NFC offense
• 5 players to target on your dynasty waiver wire.
• 21 devy risers from college football Week 4, including a new QB1 candidate

I will refer to my rankings throughout this article. You can check them out and get personalized advice on your roster here.

15 Adjustments We Need to Make

1 key takeaway from every NFC offense after 3 weeks of NFL action

Three weeks into the season is the appropriate time to reevaluate preseason perceptions based on emerging trends. I've picked one trend/player/schematic element from each NFC offense (except for the Lions, who played on Monday Night Football). Each insight offers us a chance to adjust our expectations of that offense, and the full fantasy football landscape, for the rest of the season.

Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray is averaging 6.1 yards/attempt. That is a full yard less than 2024 and matches his career low. His aDOT is a career low 6.5 yards and his big time throw rate is down to 4.1%. 44% of his passing attempts have come between 0-9 yards. The worst part? His passing grades are up, and Arizona is 1 point away from a 3-0 start so look for them to continue toning down the dynamism of their passing attack as they approach a potential winning formula.

Atlanta Falcons

Michael Penix has a 0% big time throw rate. His deep ball (20+ yards) passing grade is a low 40.9 and he has thrown the ball deep on just 5%. This is dragging down Drake London, in particular. His yards/target is down from 8.0 to 5.9 from last season and his yards/reception is down from 12.7 to 9.9 yards. This is the worst case scenario for the Falcons offense.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have thrown the ball 38 times/game, the 5th highest total in the NFL. That has led to Tetairoa McMillan's 27 targets, 11th highest in the league. Hunter Renfrow ranks 36th among wide receivers for targets, Xavier Legette 58th. Ja'Tavion Sanders ranks 17th in tight end targets. Negative game scripts have helped this, but I do not expect those to go away anytime soon.

Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze has caught 57% of Caleb Williams' touchdowns and emerged as the top target in Ben Johnson's offense. His 27 targets are 11 more than any other player, with DJ Moore's 16 targets being next. Odunze has 227 receiving yards, compared to Moore's 135. Rookies Luther Burden and Colston Loveland have flashed, but do not appear to be priorities yet. In a loaded depth chart, Odunze seems to have emerged as a year 2 breakout.

Dallas Cowboys

Javonte Williams has 5 runs of 10+ yards. That puts him on target for a career best in a season where most (including myself) assumed he had run out of juice. Williams is RB6 after the first three weeks, rushing for 227 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has caught 13 of 15 targets for 59 yards. He is officially a legitimate add to a contending roster.

Green Bay Packers

4 wide receivers have an aDOT above 14 yards. Romeo Doubs (16.2), Matthew Golden (15.6), Jayden Reed (14.4) and Dontayvion Wicks (14.1) have all been targeted downfield consistently by Jordon Love. Rookie Matthew Golden is thriving in the deep field, earning a PFF grade on 85.7 on his 3 deep field targets. He has 8 total targets. Golden's breakout is on the horizon.

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford can still support two top 15 WRs. Puka Nacua leads the league with 29 receptions, 6 more than any other player. He has caught 83% of his 35 targets (second most in the league) and is WR1 after three weeks. Adams has only caught 45% of his passes but has 213 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, good enough for WR14. This passing attack came into the season with a lot of concerns, most of which seem to be resolved. Let's just hope we don't see the Airstream again.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have run 153 plays, the lowest rank of any team at the time of writing (Ravens and Lions excluded). They are 18th in the league in rushing attempts and dead last in passing attempts (21.7/game). Carson Wentz through the ball 20 times in Week 3, matching JJ McCarthy's average of 21.5 through the first 2 games. This is bringing down a pair of receiving targets we expected to be leading the league-Justin Jefferson is WR26 and TJ Hockenson is TE22. Jordan Addison returns this week and could further eat into the targets of those two. This offense went from a top tier fantasy unit to really messy over the last three weeks.

New Orleans Saints

Chris Olave leads the league in targets, with 37. That has not solved his fantasy woes, though-he is averaging just 4.5 yards/target with Spencer Rattler. Olave has 165 yards and 0 touchdowns. That has limited him to WR24 despite the volume, a very odd fantasy occurrence. It sets a nice floor for him to build on, though-when Tyler Shough takes over Olave should be deployed deeper downfield.

New York Giants

Cam Skattebo is RB15 despite touching the ball just 33 times through the first 3 games. Skattebo is outperforming fellow rookies Omarion Hampton (RB18 on 51 touches) and Ashton Jeanty (RB32 on 52 touches). Tyrone Tracy will miss time with a dislocated shoulder, leaving a clear runway for Skattebo to have a Bucky Irving-like value rise. This week is your last chance to buy at a decent price.

Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts has only thrown 7 times in the intermediate field (10-19 yards), the lowest of any starting quarterback. 71.2% of Hurts' passes have come less than 10 yards downfield, a shocking stat for someone with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. AJ Brown's aDOT is 9.9, down from 12.6 last season. Devonta Smith's aDOT is 9.4, down from 10.0 last season and his 11.8 career average.

San Francisco 49ers

Ricky Pearsall ranks 3rd in the league in receiving yards, with 281. He leads San Francisco wide receivers with 24 targets and has 16 receptions (t-9th highest in league). He is averaging 8.5 targets/game with Mac Jones and has gone over 100 receiving yards in 2 of his 3 games so far this season. We have another Year 2 breakout on the way.

Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 42% of Seattle's passing market share. He has caught 22 of Sam Darnold's 52 passing attempts. JSN has 323 receiving yards, second most in the league. That is good for 48% of Darnold's total passing yards. He has caught 76% of his 29 targets, 5th highest in the league. He is officially a locked in difference maker for fantasy football.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have run the ball 87 times, the 6th highest rate in the league. Bucky Irving is the main beneficiary-he is RB8 despite scoring just once and averaging 3.1 yards/carry. Irving is also buoyed by his 14 receptions for 91 yards and a touchdown. He efficiency is cause for concern but volume is king-he can afford to be inefficient as a runner if this volume keeps up.

Washington Commanders

Deebo Samuel is back. He caught 14 of 18 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown in his first two games with Jayden Daniels. Despite a down Week 3 with Marcus Mariota, Samuel is WR14. He is one of a few veteran wide receivers making a surprise appearance in the early season top 24, along with Tre Tucker, Keenan Allen and Wan'Dale Robinson.

Saving Your Squad:

5 players available in at least 62% of leagues who can improve your lineup.

Editors note: if you have played in a Rookie Big Board league over the past six seasons you know Becks. He has brought home over a half dozen championships and built a few perennial powerhouses. A key piece of that success is his ability to scour the waiver wire to find value. He will be providing weekly targets that are rostered in 40% or less of leagues on Sleeper. These are his picks and they are all RBB approved.

If you’ve been watching this space, you likely already have Tyquan Thornton (5 catches, 71 yards, 1 TD in week 3) on your roster. Hopefully you took a chance on Kavonte Turpin and Mitchell Evans who moved up the depth chart due to injuries to CeeDee Lamb and Ja’Tavion Sanders. Let’s get into week 4.

Emari Demercado, RB (9% rostered) - Unfortunately for the Cardinals and fantasy managers, James Conner suffered an ankle injury and will miss the 2025 season. Trey Benson will likely step into Conner’s role, but the RB2 job is Emari’s to lose. A pass-catching weapon with 3 career TDs, Demercado is worth a look.

Sterling Shepard (20%) - On the surface this looks like just an injury replacement for Mike Evans (hamstring). Shepard, though, was involved in the offense as early as week 1. In fact, he hasn’t played less than 60% of the Bucs snaps all season. He’s averaging 5 targets per game thus far, and that number is likely to grow with the absence of Evans.

Elijah Moore (38%) - Josh Allen and the Bills are notorious for spreading the ball around, making their receivers hard to trust. Thus far, Moore has mixed in sporadically on offense. When he’s been on the field however, Sean McDermott has seemed willing to involve him in the offense. Moore has seen at least 1 target and 1 rush attempt in each game this season. The former second-round pick scored a rushing touchdown in week 2. 

Kimani Vidal (22%) - The Chargers lost Najee Harris for the season to an unfortunate Achilles tear, leaving Omarion Hampton as the clear RB1 going forward. Behind Hampton, there’s plenty of opportunities available. Vidal was a buzzy name last year and scored a long touchdown on a wheel route in his NFL debut. If you’re not a Vidal fan, you can take a shot on Hassan Haskins instead.

Xavier Hutchinson (17%) - This offseason, the Texans seemed to signal that they wanted to overhaul their WR room. They drafted Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel and signed Christian Kirk in free agency. Somehow, none of this has stopped them from starting Hutchinson every week. He has played over 50% of the Texans snaps each week thus far and has seen 8 targets from C.J. Stroud.

Devy Stock Report: Week 4 Risers

A new QB1 candidate emerges and Day 2 of the 2026 NFL Draft is starting to take shape

Week 4, despite a lack of hype, delivered us with some key devy insights. That is exactly why the Rookie Big Board exists, to make sure you don't miss emerging trends and can capture value early.

You can find my full devy rankings here

• Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza is the biggest winner from Week 4. He threw completed 91% of his 23 passes for 267 yards and 5 touchdowns in a marquee prime time victory over Illinois. Mendoza is now firmly in the 2026 QB1 conversation.
• LSU TE Bauer Sharp went over 70 receiving yards for the second week in a row. Sharp in 2026 eligible and is making a case for Day 2 consideration.
• Miami RB Mark Fletcher is, once again, moving up the rankings. He rushed for 116 yards and a touchdown against Florida. He passes the eye test-bursty with impressive strength and good contact balance.
• Florida State RB Gavin Sawchuk has reemerged! He was a popular mid-round devy pick when he was at Oklahoma but never lived up to the hype. He rushed for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns against Kent State.
• Auburn WR Cam Coleman caught 3 balls for 88 yards and a touchdown against Oklahoma. Two of those catches showed off his ridiculous athleticism and ball-tracking ability. It is clear Coleman will be a quality over quantity conversation as we rank draft eligible wide receivers heading into next season.
• Vanderbilt TE Eli Stowers caught 5 balls for 73 yards against Georgia State. He now has at least 3 receptions in every game for a total of 233 yards. I project him as a Day 2 selection in the 2026 NFL Draft.
• Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola completed 75% of his 40 passing attempts for 308 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception. The Cornhuskers lost a close game against Michigan but Raiola looked good.
• Nebraska WR Jacory Barney Jr. caught 6 balls for 120 yards and 2 touchdowns. Barney is a sophomore who now has 2 games with 100+ yards this season.

• Michigan RB Justice Haynes continues to look great. He rushed for 149 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. Haynes is settling into a top 50 projection.
• South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers was a surprise start against Missouri. Sellers was expected to miss the game with a concussion but threw for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns.
• Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy looked great again this week. He rushed for 138 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries.
• Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love finally put it together against Purdue. He rushed for 157 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 carries. It is worth noting that his backfield mate, Jadarian Price also looked good-he found the endzone 3 times.
• USC WR Makai Lemon caught 8 balls for 127 yards and a touchdown against Michigan State. Lemon is speedy, athletic and has consistent hands.
• USC RB Waymond Jordan rushed for 157 yards on 18 carries. The JUCO transfer now has 286 yards on 39 carries (7.3 yards/carry) for 3 touchdowns over the first four games of the season.
• Maryland QB Malik Washington continues to impress me. The true freshman threw for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions in his first BIG10 game against Wisconsin. He now has completed 60% of 134 passing attempts for 1,038 yards, 8 touchdowns, 1 interception this season.
• Syracuse WR Johntay Cook shredded Clemson. Yes, that Johntay Cook. He caught 6 balls for 113 yards. I am not sure if the Syracuse passing attack will hold up with QB Steve Angelli out for the rest of the season, so I want to make sure Cook gets some credit for seemingly settling down with the Orange.
• TCU WR Eric McAlister caught 8 balls for 254 yards and 3 touchdowns against rival SMU. He entered the season with significant hype but had just 5 receptions and 66 yards heading into this week. Let's hope this is a sign of things to come for the 2026 eligible wideout.
• NC State RB Hollywood Smothers rushed for 123 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries against Duke. Smothers has now rushed for at least 120 yards in each of his last three games. He is 2026 eligible but I would prefer to consider him as a sneaky sleeper running back who should be in the 2027 class.
• Washington QB Demond Williams threw for 298 yards and 4 touchdowns while completing 84% of his attempts against rival Washington State. He also rushed for 88 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. The true sophomore now has 778 passing yards, 220 rushing yards and 8 total touchdowns through his first three games.
• BYU QB Bear Bachmeier threw for 246 yards and a touchdown against East Carolina. He is a true freshman who was thrust into the starting job late. He has completed 67% of his 63 passing attempts for 518 yards and 4 touchdowns through his first three games. He also has 4 rushing touchdowns.
• Baylor RB Bryson Washington rushed for 111 yards on 16 carries against Arizona State. Washington now has rushed for 110+ yards in each of the last three weeks. He is a volume-heavy, physical back with a Day 3 projection.