Garrett Nussmeier Reminds Me of Patrick Mahomes (Not Like That)

Garrett Nussmeier has not had a linear journey to the top of NFL Draft boards. He was a 4 star recruit and despite being an Elite 11 finalist was ranked as the 14th quarterback in the 2021 class.

After redshirting his freshmen season in Baton Rouge he was expected to win the starting job and be the guy for then new head coach Brian Kelly. Then entered transfer quarterback Jayden Daniels-have you heard of him?

When Nussmeier lost the starting job to Daniels, a lot of devy managers lost faith in him. It did not phase me, as the Jayden Daniels truther I was maybe the only person who did not expect Nussmeier to win out the job. In the transfer portal era it would have been easy for him to move on and take a job elsewhere but he chose to stay.

That decision paid off big time last season. Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns while completing 64% of his 525 attempts last season. He threw for over 300 yards in 8 games and broke 400 yards twice.

His big performances against Ole Miss, USC and the real USC (South Carolina) created significant buzz by mid-October that he could be the first overall pick in the 2025 Draft. Nussmeier hit a cold streak after that, struggling against Arkansas, Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida. He finished strong in his final three games against Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and in the bowl game against Baylor.

Now he enters the 2025 season firmly in the top tier of quarterbacks. I was excited to get into his film but came away with a starkly different opinion that I expected. I thought I would see a big-armed pocket passer that reminded me of Matthew Stafford or Aaron Rodgers. Instead, the player that came to mind was...Patrick Mahomes.

A Different Kind of Arm Talent

Arm talent is often confused for arm strength. Arm strength is only a piece of the equation when it comes to evaluating a prospect's arm talent. You also need to chiefly consider velocity, touch, and release points.

Nussmeier has arm strength. That is clear. He hits 40-50 yard deep balls with impressive ease. He fires the ball on a rope through the mid-field with a tight spiral and good velocity. I watched a good amount of LSU live last season so I expected to come away impressed in this category.

What I did not expect to enjoy was his ability to execute release points and lead receivers with excellent touch. There are a lot of things that make Patrick Mahomes a great passer but I believe his ability to hit creative release points and his touch were what helped him develop early in his career.

Nussmeier displayed the ability to adjust arm angles to avoid pressure, fit the ball in tight windows or make throws on the run. He does not yet do this consistently enough to rate high for me but he does it enough to get me excited (which is good enough for this phase of the scouting process).

He knows when to take spin off the ball and leads his receivers very well in the mid and deep field when putting touch on his ball. This is a rare trait for prospect's to display, especially with only a year of starting experience. This alone should get anyone excited.

Mobile Enough

I did not expect to be impressed with Nussmeier's athleticism. He is not Kyler Murray or Anthony Richardson but he is just mobile enough to win as a passer. That is the second reason he reminds me of Patrick Mahomes.

Nussmeier lacks burst when running. He moves well laterally but isn't sharp when changing direction. He is fluid moving east/west, though. He navigates within the pocket well and moves it with success. He is both wildly evasive and has great body control when running.

He is a good decision making when taking off. I love when quarterbacks use their legs to extend a play while looking to pass. Nussmeier keeps his eyes up and is focused on finishing the play with his arm. When he tucks the ball, he does not take bad hits.

Mobile-enough is not the flashiest term for fantasy football. It is important to consider that what I just described is excellent for a prospect but not excellent for fantasy managers. Patrick Mahomes' mobile-enough play style is a key reason why he finished as just QB12 last season, rushing just 58 times for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Wait, I also see some Jordan Love

If Patrick Mahomes is the high end of Nussmeier's fantasy range then Jordan Love is the bottom. While at Utah State, Jordan Love struggled with accuracy and mental processing.

Nussmeier's highlight reel of deep balls and gunslinger ropes through double coverage are balanced by a lack of consistency. He struggles with anticipated and can overthrow receivers downfield at times.

His real struggles come under pressure. His timing drops off significantly in the mid and short field with defenders in his face. His accuracy is hurt considerably throwing outside of the numbers under pressure. LSU fielded a poor offensive line unit against SEC defenses but NFL evaluators are not looking for excuses.

Nussmeier is a gunslinger and that comes with downside. He forces balls into tight windows too often. Under pressure he tries too hard to make a big play, which leads to mistakes and interceptions. His lack of experience showed through consistently in that cold streak of SEC games.

Nussmeier is not a clean evaluation. He has the tools to be a top tier passer in the NFL. His arm strength, mechanics and ability to extend plays while improvising create an appealing upside. Although he is mobile, he lacks the burst and elusiveness to consistently make an impact as a rushing quarterback, which may limit his fantasy upside.

If Nussmeier hits his potential, his style leads to a fantasy projection that lands him between Jordan Love and Patrick Mahomes.

Despite my concerns, I want exposure to Nussmeier, who should be a lock first-round NFL Draft selection even in what projects to be a very strong quarterback class.