Omarion Hampton's 2025 Projection: A Major Value

It sounds simple but a key way my rookie valuation process distinguishes itself is that I prioritize a the player's ability to produce fantasy points early and often. A critical part of that process is putting together seasonal projections that include every incoming rookie, and every other player in the NFL.

Omarion Hampton is an exciting projection. He evaluated well through the tape process, secured coveted first-round NFL Draft capital and landed on a run-first offense. Hampton initially looked to be in a split-backfield role, but recent reports have casted doubt over Najee Harris' ability to be healthy to open the season.

When I am projecting rookie season production I take into account three things

1. The player's skillset relative to their new scheme
2. The volume opportunity within their new offense
3. Historical rookie season performances that match the strengths/play style of the player

Let's walk through each step together to see where Omarion Hampton lands.

Decisive and Powerful Scheme Fit

Head Coach John Harbaugh and the Chargers employ a power rushing scheme. That makes Hampton a perfect fit. Below is an excerpt from Hampton's page in the Rookie Big Board's 2025 Rookie Guide

Hampton bursts off the line and gets to his top speed quickly. Hampton hits the hole hard and overwhelms defenders through the first level of the field. He is a decisive runner who takes what the defense gives him. Hampton wasn't given much space behind a poor offensive line but gets the most out of small gaps. He has good downfield acceleration for his size.

Hampton has ridiculous contact balance; refusing to go down even when fully wrapped up by multiple defenders. Hampton works best between the tackles but is quick enough to bounce to the outside and get upfield. He has a solid anchor and good range in pass protection. He has reliable hands. He displays the ability to react to underthrown balls and turn upfield after the catch.

Hampton's contact balance and ability to grind between the tackles is the reason Harbaugh spent significant draft capital on the former Tarheel. He will be used right away as a foundation piece of the Chargers' rushing attack. Hampton will be rushing behind an offensive line that is graded in the top 10 by PFF.

Harbaugh's Second Chance

The Chargers ran the ball 463 times last season, accounting for 47.5% of snaps. They had the 11th most rushing attempts in the NFL last season. Despite ranking in the top third of the league, I am confident Harbaugh is not happy with his run rate.

The patchwork 2024 Chargers running game featured an uninspiring combination of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Dobbins was inconsistent and lacked the explosiveness that served as the foundation of his game when he was at his peak. Despite his struggle, he managed to rush for 905 yards and 9 touchdowns. Herbert was keen to target him in the short-field, too. He caught 32 of his 38 targets. Gus Edwards scrapped together 365 rushing yards, never coming close to the home-run hitter we saw in Baltimore.

Harbaugh built a reputation as a run-first head coach from his time at Michigan. He showed a desire to continue that in the NFL through the first month of last year's campaign. Justin Herbert threw the ball just 22.7 times/game over the first four games of the 2024 season. The Chargers went 2-2 in that time and then went into their early BYE week. Harbaugh is an adaptive coach, who seemed to realize that his running back room was not where he needed them to be. Herbert threw the ball 32.2 times/game in the following 13 games, marking a significant move away from Harbaugh's initial desire.

The early selection of Omarion Hampton, priority signing of Najee Harris and additions of Mekhi Becton and Andre James through free agency suggest that Harbaugh is giving his run-first approach another chance. I project that the Chargers will increase their rushing attempts from 463 to 525 carries in 2025. This is a significant, but not a statistically unrealistic year over year increase.

If you were excited about Omarion Hampton prior to the 2025 NFL Draft, you should be thrilled about the offense he landed in and his immediate opportunity.

The Curious Case of Najee Harris

I am, perhaps to a fault, a Najee Harris truther. He was my top running back in the 2021 rookie class, despite getting a lot of flack from the Javonte Williams truthers. I'm happy with the way that worked out for me, by the way. He finished the ppr RB3, RB14, RB23 and RB20 over the course of his rookie contract

Harris signed a one-year, $5.2 million deal with the Chargers in the offseason. At the time, that read to me as a clear indication that Los Angeles wanted to add an impact rusher, but were not going to stop with him. Once they drafted Omarion Hampton, the picture became clear.

My initial post-NFL Draft projection for Najee Harris was 643 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns on 153 carries, equal to 30% of the rushing share. That put Harris as RB41 in the projections. I thought he would have a significant role in the offense but would not considerably threaten Hampton's opportunity.

Earlier this month, reports surfaced that Harris had suffered an eye injury as a result of a fireworks-related incident. This week it was shared that Harris will start preseason camp on the NFI list. Conflicting reports suggested the extent of the injury and that until recently the Chargers medical staff had not evaluated the injury.

Given this week's news, I significantly reduced Harris' projection. I now expect him to rush the ball 105 times for 441 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, 20% of the rushing share. Hampton inherits 4% of that rushing share, with the remaining 6% being distributed between Raheim Sanders and Hassan Haskins.

Historical Comparisons

I keep a database of rookie production going back to 2018 to find historical comparisons to ensure that I am making realistic projections for rookies. Nick Chubb's rookie season (2018) and David Montgomery (2019) both come to mind, but Kenneth Walker (2022) is the comp that best fits.

Walker was the key piece of the Seahawks offense as a rookie. He rushed the ball 228 times and found the endzone 9 times. He averaged a respectable 4.6 yards/carry. The key aspect of this comp is Walker's 27 receptions on 35 targets for 165 receiving yards. Walker had a quarterback willing to use his legs in Geno Smith, similar to Justin Herbert and had a couple of running back chipping away touches in Rashaad Penny and DeeJay Dallas.

Kenneth Walker's profile identified a rusher with good vision, strength, explosiveness and the ability to contribute to the passing game. That aligns well with Hampton's profile.

Omarion Hampton: A Major Value as RB13

Now that we have an idea of Hampton's skillset, his scheme fit, opportunity and a realistic historical comparison it is time to place he projection in the context of the rest of the league.

Hampton's projection, in total, is 219 carries for 1,140 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. He projects to catch 29 balls on 39 targets for 205 yards and 2 touchdowns. 210 total fantasy points in 0.5 ppr format, 12.3 fantasy ppg.

His projection is informed by his clear role as the top back in an offense that will be run-heavy. Hampton's vision and explosive play-style between the tackles makes me confident he can average 5 yards/carry. The contact balance and short-yardage success he showed in college lead to a confident projection of 8 rushing touchdowns. Hampton has underrated hands. He showed enough at North Carolina to make me confident he can at least match the production JK Dobbins had as a check-down option for Justin Herbert last season.

That slots him in as RB13, just 4 spots behind fellow rookie running back Ashton Jeanty. Hampton is just behind RB12 Josh Jacobs and RB14 Bucky Irving.

Omarion Hampton is currently RB20 in seasonal ADP. Even in the Scott Fish Bowl, which favors volume and is filled with the industry's top analysts, Hampton is RB17. The Scott Fish Bowl is also currently drafting, which means the Najee Harris news is factored into his ADP.

Relative to his projection, then, Omarion Hampton is a major value. I already have high exposure to the Chargers lead back in my dynasty leagues but this exercise has made me confident to aggressively draft him in seasonal formats as well.